This almost certainly won’t happen to the ISS. At the same time, it’s a far more extreme version of the only way an American space station has ever come down. In 1979, after years spent vacant in orbit, Skylab, the US’s first space station, started sinking toward the atmosphere, where it threatened to fall and drop molten spacecraft parts on Earth. At that point, NASA officials had to remotely wake up its computers and, with only limited control of the station, direct it over a location that would endanger the fewest humans.
Matthew Smith had to wait almost a year for a double lung transplant
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The ISS does have its own defenses, of course. Fabric-y buffers envelope some of the systems, and a bumper called the Whipple Shield helps blunt impact. That shield is only built to stop debris up to about 1 cubic centimeter, though, and the debris tracker is only designed to catch pieces 10 cubic centimeters and larger. In other words, there’s a gap in defenses.
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